Two months from today, voters in Michigan will take to the polls for the Primary Election in which five Republicans and two Democrats square off for each respective party’s gubernatorial nomination. And since Michigan has “open primaries”, meaning a registered voter is issued ballots of both parties and the voter can select the party primary in which he or she wishes to participate, the polling numbers are all over the map.
According to Mlive.com, in a telephone poll taken May 22-26 and released today from Lansing-based Epic/MRA, Pete Hoekstra had support from 30% of “likely primary voters”. Attorney General Mike Cox had 18%, Ann Arbor businessman Rick Snyder had 17%, and Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard had 16%.
These numbers contradict the results released on Tuesday from Public Policy Polling (PPP), which shows Rick Snyder in the lead. According to Mlive.com, PPP, based in North Carolina, found that Snyder’s strength depends on independents saying they will vote in the Republican primary.
Basically, in a “closed” primary situation, Hoekstra appears to be ahead, but Snyder has a lead on the Republican side when factoring in the Democrats and Independents who are likely to vote in the GOP primary.
Among Democrats, PPP says Virg Bernero, Lansing mayor, is neck-and-neck with his opponent, House Speaker Andy Dillon. Bernero leads that race 26-23%, but 51% of Democratic voters are “undecided”. As reported yesterday, PPP’s numbers indicate the Republican Primary winner as the odds-on favorite in November with Snyder, Hoekstra, Bouchard, Cox, and even state senator Tom George all having advantages over Bernero or Dillon, according to their surverys.
Suffice it to say, it’s still very early, and a lot of things can and will happen over the next two months.